2025 NBA Bog Board 1.0 (Lottery)

We are not far away from the lottery being set and after shuffling my board for the past 4-5 months, I wanted to put out my first bog board. This is only players I have in the lottery but I will follow this up with the rest of my first round rankings later this week.

1. Cooper Flagg. F. Duke

Not much debate here. Flagg was better than advertised and has shown all year why he is deserving of this spot. At times when a prospect is this good, some can get bored and try to make cases for another prospect but let’s not do that here. Flagg is the best prospect in this class with a bullet.

His ability to impact the game on both sides is second to none. His shooting was perceived to be a weakness but it improved throughout the season. At times he can be a little too unselfish but as he develops, that will work itself out. The ball handing will also need some work, but as he’s done all year, it will continue to improve.

Competition in the ACC has not been the best but Flagg has dominated. In games against the top 4 teams in the conference he averaged roughly 23 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists. Take into consideration that most of these games were blowouts. If you look at his out of conference numbers against SEC, B10, and B12 teams – he averaged around 20 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists. A franchise changing talent sits atop my board as he has all year.

2. Dylan Harper. G. Rutgers

The big debate is if Harper is a point guard or shooting guard. I believe he is a lot like Cade Cunningham with his ability to do a combination of both. The shooting and lack of burst are the two areas of improvement, but it is not all bad. He is around 37% on catch and shoot threes but sub 30% when shooting off the dribble. The explosiveness and speed I don’t worry too much about as he is able to get to his spots at his own pace and the defense never speeds him up. That type of poise is what I want in a guard being taken this high in the draft.

Along with that pace, Harper has an elite trait when it comes to finishing at the rim. He’s able to navigate through pick and rolls while finishing at nearly a 70% rate in the paint. There are no wrong fits for Harper and his skillset. The league has transformed into a wing dependent league but there is something to be said for a big physical guard who can constantly get to his spots.

The playmaking can take another step when he is playing with better teammates - no disrespect to them but they were not the best supporting cast. That points to maybe why Harper only averaged 4 assists - most of those going to Ace. The comparisons of Cade are the most applicable in my opinion due to their size, pick and roll navigation and ability to play on or off ball. If that is his ceiling, whoever gets Harper at two should be ecstatic.

3. Jeremiah Fears. G. Oklahoma

Fears likely would have been going to his senior prom around this time but due to his brilliance in Norman - he is working and focusing on being a top five pick in June. Relentless attacker and always looking to put two feet in the paint - while also being able to utilize his elite body control to finish at the rim. He canplay on or off ball at a high level, which adds to the already high upside to the young guard.

He did have a turnover issue (3.4/game) which he needs to clean up, BUT not many young guards were handed the keys to lead a team in the best conference we’ve ever seen. He had one of the highest usage rates of any freshman in the country and still delivered. Decision making will improve due to him having better players around him and his ability to get better at reading and reacting to coverages.

His shot selection can be a bit Trae Young-ish at times but again I go back to him basically having to play the hero for the Sooners more times than not. He was below 30% from deep but when he was off ball, he shot around 36% off the catch. His floater game is elite and at the line he is above 80% which shows his versatility and three level scoring. No matter what you point to, the signs are there for Fears to be a productive young guard at the next level. From the numbers to the eye test, he should thrive at the next level as a combo guard.

4. Ace Bailey. F. Rutgers

Some may say evaluating Ace is rather straightforward. I would disagree. He is one of the evaluations that I go back and forth on daily. The talent is obvious - which is easy to see on film and through numbers, but he is a very high variance prospect. The trait that is somewhat his superpower is also a flaw in his game. Bailey is a tough shot taker and a tough shot maker - a skill that could define what his overall ceiling is as a prospect.

He has excellent positional size and is the prototypical wing that all teams desire to have. He shot around 35% from three on a decent volume and made an array of difficult shots. My issue is that some of those shots were heavily contested and unnecessary. Traits like that are good when its falling but if not, I’m unsure what else he can hang his hat on.

The ball handling is not great, especially if he is going against a defender who can pressure the ball at a high level. He also struggled finishing at the rim despite the size and athleticism. He was under 50% on layups in the halfcourt and did not get to the free-throw line at a high enough clip. There were 16 games where Ace had three free throw attempts or less - 8 of those he had 1 or 0 attempts.

That tells me he is jump shot dependent which is a high variance skill that must be done at an elite level to have success at the next level. I have seen the Michael Porter Jr comparisons which are fair but MPJ plays with one of the best players of all time and lives off spot up jumpers set up by Jokic. Bailey shot under 30% on open three-pointers and it is unlikely he plays with a player like Joker - so I ask, what can he hang his hat on?

5. Tre Johnson. G. Texas

Not many better shot makers in this class than Tre. Every offseason since the league has turned into a three-point heavy league - each team always says they want to add more shooting. Tre’s best attribute as a prospect is his shooting. Like Ace, he does take some questionable shots which will need to be toned down. He also played in the best conference of all time and averaged 20 points on 36% shooting from three as a true freshman. Performing against high level competition will always be a check in the right boxes.

He has shown a glimpse of playmaking ability but his role was to score the basketball. I don’t knock him much for the lack of playmaking because of that and the flashes he has shown it off. His high school film also shows him being able to distribute more than what he showed at Texas. I would love to see him get to the rim more and not be as jump shot reliant even though that is his superpower. He had less than 90 shots at the rim in 33 games this year which is a concern of mine.

Roles are pivotal in the NBA and his will be scaled down from what he did at Texas. He is a proven shot maker - no matter if he must create it or do it off the catch. That is an elite trait that teams cannot have enough of. Tre can provide that plus the ability to get bigger and more physical as he develops.

6. VJ Edgecombe. G. Baylor

Initially I expected VJ to be fighting for a top three or four spot on the board. While he is not far off, when I watch him, I constantly came away feeling like I needed more from him. The production was a bit inconsistent and often he would rely more on his athleticism than skillset. There were stretches where he put it together and looked like a top four prospect and that is what I wanted to see more. The fit was a bit strange with a heavy guard rotation at Baylor but he still found ways to be effective as a freshman in a tough conference.

He reminds me a bit of Bennedict Mathurin with the athleticism mixed with the catch and shoot ability. He was around 34% from deep and kept pressure on the defense by getting to the rim at a decent rate. Good instincts on the defensive end (2.1 steals per game) which often led to him being able to get out in transition to show off that athleticism. The shot creation needs to improve as he shot below 30% on off-the-dribble jumpers and when Baylor needed a basket, it was tough for him to create for himself.

He has the tools to play a similar role to Mathurin. A 6th man role who provides energy and effort on both ends for the second unit. He also has the upside to make spot starts when injuries occur throughout the season which is valuable in today’s NBA. Fringe all-star is the ceiling I have for him if the shot creation improves and he develops into more of a three-level scorer. He would be a PERFECT fit for a team like Brooklyn where he can get significant minutes early and is allowed to play through mistakes without being relied on as a primary option.

7. Kon Kneuppel. F. Duke

If you asked me who has the highest floor of anyone in the lottery not named Flagg - Kon would be my answer. Translatable skills are at the top of my list when looking at prospects and Kon has one of the best translatable skills there is to have, shooting. He was a 40% shooter from three and around 47% on spot up threes. Coming into the season I was concerned about him solely relying on his jump shot. That was the case early on but as the season progressed - he showed the ability to post up and be a primary ball handler.

Scheyer moved Caleb Foster to the bench early on and allowed Kon to orchestrate the offense which unlocked his pick and roll execution. These are areas where he made me raise my eyebrows as if he could be more than just a shooter. Even with Flagg on the floor, he was not just standing in the corner. He is a constant mover and cutter which adds even more upside to his offensive capabilities.

He does have minimal athleticism and some defensive concerns but he competes like hell on that end. His size allows him to guard multiple positions and although he is not a lock down defender by any means - he will compete. Ball pressure could speed him up a bit and he lacks shot creation but those things I don’t think a team will ask him to do as much as Duke did. Kon is a guy you can pencil in for a long productive Kyle Korver-Mike Miller type of career.

8. Kasparas Jakucionis, G, Illinois

I had Jakucionis at four much of the year and I felt good about it until January. Was this a result of the forearm injury or the overall production? A combination of both would be my best answer. Despite that, I still like how he projects – especially in a scaled down roll as a secondary ball handler. His positional size and ability to fill the stat sheet across the board provides another dynamic that not many guards in this draft can provide.

His shot diet and turnover issues are a concern. He was much better shooting pre-January but the turnover issues have always been an issue. The biggest concern is that a lot of those turnovers are unforced, which has me questioning his overall ball control. Despite that concern, it is still something that can be improved upon – especially with a lower usage rate.

The shooting fluctuated – mostly down after the forearm injury but it is something I believe will get better in his role. He was shooting close to 40% from deep to start the season while also being able to distribute and rebound at a high level. His size and vision allow him to be effective out of pick and rolls if the decision making gets cleaned up.

9. Derik Queen. F. Maryland

One of the toughest evaluations I had to do in quite some time. The numbers and production do not lie but can he be a hub for an NBA offense? He works in the mid post area like a Paul Milsap or Al Jefferson but the problem is - those types of players are not what we are accustomed to seeing in this version of the NBA.

Queen has a soft touch, quick hands, and some of the best footwork of any big man in this draft. The jump shot mustdevelop - maybe not a three-point shot but from 15-18 feet, he must consistently knock those shots down. He was under 30% on jump shots while in College Park and relied more on post work and offensive rebounds to get his points. There is a world where we look back and say that he was misevaluated BUT I think a lot of that has to do with what team drafts him.

Defensively there is a lot of work to do also - he struggles with stretch bigs with more wiggle, which is what he will face on a nightly basis. Despite some of these glaring weaknesses, his skill level is extremely high and if put in the right situation - he could thrive. Some may say he does not look the part because of his physique but Maryland had zero depth and he played 30 minutes per game. Could he use some toning up? Sure, but he has been durable and showed he can play lengthy minutes all year long.

10. Collin Murray Boyles. F. South Carolina

The discussion of Murray-Boyles is interesting. There are people who have him top five while others have him as a fringe lottery prospect. I slotted him at this spot because despite the lack of a jump shot and being undersized - he was dominant in the SEC. His decision to come back raised some eyebrows but he improved despite not having the best talent around him. He was dominant against some of the better teams and players throughout SEC play - look no further than the 24- and 25-pointoutings against Georgia and Auburn.

The concerns with his position and will he be able to work out of the mid-post and low block area on offense are legitimate. In the right system, he can be effective in those areas if he can improve the jump shot. His footwork and defensive versatility alone warrant him to be a top 10 pick. The offensive production from a number’s standpoint is strong - not to mention he has one of the best plus-minus differences in his on/off splits.

If you are a non-believer in CMB, the comeback would be he was on a bad team, of course the numbers look good. Fair assessment but my rebuttal would be that South Carolina is a single digit win team without him. Small ball is still an issue for certain teams and if you have CMB as your small ball 4 - I see him being highly productive in that role.

11. Jase Richardson. G. Michigan State

There have been four one and done players since 1952 come from East Lansing. Jase adds his name to that after a productive and surprising first year on campus. There are a lot of adjectives to describe Jase and his ability but let me just keep it simple and use effective. He utilizes every skillset he must affect the game as needed. The size is questionable but the production is not. Is he a point guard? No. Is he a shooting guard? No. What is he, then? A basketball player! The type of player you plug in with any lineup and he can produce and be effective - like what we see from guys like Bruce Brown or Derrick White.

Tom Izzo stated in an interview that his team got better once he handed the keys to Jase. This is on a team with two veteran guards and a handful of other players who have loads of experience. That is the type of player who impacts winning regardless of position or size. He shot the ball at a very high level (41% from three) but was also efficient from the field (49%) and at the free-throw line.

His ability to be a plug and play type of player raises his floor. A lot was put on his plate at Michigan State but in a scaled down role for a middling NBA team - I believe he will have a positive impact. The shot creation and playmaking will need to improve so he is not solely relying on teammates to get him in his spots. Defensively with his size he is a prime target for offenses and while he is not a horrific defender, he will need to show strides of being able to hold up physically.

12. Khaman Maluach. C. Duke

Similar trajectory to Lively – could show more in NBA than college due to team and system being played. Depending on who you ask, some would say he showed more in the Olympics than at Duke. I’m way lower on him due to his raw offensive ability and I thought he should have been way more productive on both ends. I understand he is a project and is just getting his feet wet in basketball, but I can’t point to one specific thing that he is elite at.

He only played around 21 minutes per game and often he was not aggressive enough offensively against inferior opponents. Was that due to the offense at Duke or Kahman just not being assertive enough? A combination of both would be my answer. He does finish well at the rim off pick and roll sets - which was on full display during his time in Durham but what else?

There were flashes of being at his best in pockets of the game but never consistently over a stretch of games. That concerns me if I am taking him in the top half of the lottery. The perfect scenario would be to pair him with a veteran big he can develop under and add more to his skillset on both sides of the ball. This is part of the reason I have him late lottery to a team like the 76ers or Toronto.

13. Noa Essengue, F, RatioPharm ULM

A little light in the pants but his production is far from light. Look no further than his performance against the Portland Trailblazers in the preseason where he scored 20 points and had 9 rebounds. A game in which they were competitive due to the production of Noa. Despite his size, he can get to the lane consistently and can take some contact in the process. The question is - will he be able to do so in the best league in the world like he had done in his previous stops. That is one of the concerns but his motor and relentless effort is one that I would bet helps him improve with that concern.

The shooting is also a huge concern as he shot below 25% from deep. Believe it or not that was an improvement over the last few years of him playing. Despite the shooting concerns he was still able to be highly productive at such a young age. His defensive versatility allows him to guard multiple positions and his length helps with weakside blocks or contests whenever he is in that style of defense.

Despite the shooting and strength, there are numerous aspects of Noa’s game that can translate to the NBA. With some time in the weight room and getting multiple reps - I see him improving into a solid rotational piece for a team. As one of the younger prospects in the draft, he has yet to hit anything close to what he is going to be but still has shown the high-level production you would want to see from a mid-level lottery pick.

14. Maxime Raynaud. C. Stanford

There is always a prospect or two who outperforms their draft position. My top candidate to do that is Raynaud. His draft range is fringe lottery to maybe high 20’s but I am going a step further placing him in the lottery. His skillset fits what a lot of teams are doing with their forwards. At 7 foot – I see him playing more of the Lauri Markkanen or Porzinigs role at this level which has been highly valuable in today’s game.

He improved every year since arriving at Stanford. He was the most improved player in the Pac-12 his junior year and got even better this past year when he was an All-ACC performer. He is not the best athlete but utilizes his skillset to his advantage in mismatches.

His ball handling is fluid but he can over dribble at times which leads to unforced turnovers. In a dimmed down role, he will not be asked to dribble as much but the ball handling and shot creation is something to work on. The shooting is there – he was around 35% this year on nearly 6 attempts and around 37% on catch and shoot threes. All these high-level skills translate along with the production. Maxine will be a steal in this draft.